Random posts on all sorts of things designed to inform and provoke.
By now everyone knows that the Egyptian military has made good on its threat and overthrown President Morsi’s democratically elected government thus plunging this North African country into further chaos.
Let’s start our analysis of this situation by considering the fate of President Morsi. It’s obvious that his current presidency is over as the majority of the Egyptian people and the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) want him to leave; the man, therefore, has no choice but to resign from office.
The chances of him working with SCAF are also quite slim since Morsi did not resign before the deadline and Egypt’s military leadership is unlikely to work cooperatively with someone who did not acquiesce to their reasonable and just order.
Morsi and his supporters, however, do not seem to have received this memo and, as of yet, continue to harbor illusions of staying in power. The belief that Allah is on their side may provide them with the needed resolve but since Ramadan is about to start, the hunger pangs may weaken their fortitude.
Therefore, it is in their best interests to resolve this crisis before the start of the Muslim holy month.
In all seriousness, however, if Morsi wants to avoid further bloodshed, he should resign and call upon his supporters to actively work towards and campaign during the elections.
The truth is that his party – and any movement aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood – is unlikely to win the next elections and their best chance is to put up a good showing and become viable and active members of the opposition i.e. make the best of a bad situation.
Forcing Morsi from power does set a dangerous precendent since it hurts not only Egypt’s march towards becoming a viable democracy but also hurts the chances of other autocratic nations changing lanes from dictatorships to democracies.
The fact of the matter is that Egypt was never going to become an Iran or a pre-World War II Germany as many of the protestors have claimed. Furthermore, if Pakistan can survive a Zardari presidency then Egypt would have survived Morsi’s term with nary a relative impact.
Regardless, Morsi is out and while we wait to figure out which domestic party will be the big winner in this game, the United States is clearly the big global winner. While its uncertain what part Washington played in these developments, its obvious that Morsi went out of his way to help America by showing his despotic tendencies early and often.
Now, the US can use the Egyptian president’s actions as examples of how Islamists actually rule when they come to power and use that to discourage further such governments.
In addition, Washington can use its massive aid to force SCAF to hold elections and select an acceptable leadership – either through judicial or extra-judicial means.
By the way, this piece purposely ignores the Egyptian people because that is what happens in democracies and dictatorships, and the faster the Egyptians learn that, the better off they will be.